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EKONOMİK
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TOBB President M. Rifat Hisarcıklıoğlu:
“A growth unfelt by most of the public
was experienced”
2016’s economy targets
T
hird quarter growth records were
surprising and above expectations.
Expectations were 3% while the actual
figure turned out to 4%. A stable re-
covery in growth rates is on the table.
With this recovery, the growth rate for
the first nine months rose to 3.4%, while
it was 2.9% in the first six months. It is
expected that growth rates will con-
tinue to increase following the strong
industry production data in October. It
is quite likely that 2015 will close with
over 3.5% growth, perhaps reaching as
high as 4%.
As a result, a growth unfelt by most
of the public was experienced. That is
why overly optimistic comments may
be unsuitable while pushing these fi-
gures. Especially when we consider the
circumstances which will be created by
rates to be declared by FED as well as the
crises in progress with Syria and Russia.
In summary, the envelope is good
while the contents are problematic.
While the headline figures of growth are
satisfactory their contents have hidden
issues. On the other hand, we expect
the industry and private consumption
to increase the last quarter. With these
taken into consideration the 4% growth
projected in the Medium Term Program
will be actualized at approximately 3.7%.
T
he past year of 2015 has been a year of
many problems for the whole world.
The recession seen in global markets cau-
sed a slowing down in investments while
significant fluctuations were observed in
developing economies. The FED took the
steps necessary to end the days of cheap
money in the last days of 2015.
The International Monetary Fund (IMF)
continually revised its growth estimates to
be lower. IMF’s global growth estimate for
2015 was initially 3.8%, lowered to 3.1%
afterwards.
With lessening of uncertainties stem-
ming from FED as well as signs of recovery
in Europe, a cautiously optimistic outlook
formed for 2016. However, as the first days
of the new year are behind us, bad news,
one after the other, have lowered the op-
timism for 2016 while increasing caution.
So, what awaits Turkey’s economy in
2016? Economy Minister Mustafa Elitaş,
TOBB President M. Rifat Hisarcıklıoğlu, eco-
nomists, the business community and in-
dustrialists spoke with TOBB Economic Fo-
rum Magazine regarding their predictions,
risks and recommendations for the global
and Turkish economy in 2016.
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